International Financial Markets And The Firmament

This article is by Fergal O’Brien and Scott Hamilton of Bloomberg News. It appeared first on the Bloomberg Terminal. Britain’s vote on its future in the European Union is diverting attention from deeper economic problems. As the country thrashes about in an identity crisis, risking a schism with its main trading partner, growth is losing momentum and continues to be lop-sided. Services, the engine of the economy’s recovery, expanded at the weakest pace in almost a year in the first quarter, while industrial production extended its decline. That underscores the fragility of the economy at a time when the Bank of England is warning uncertainty stemming from the June 23 referendum may already be having an effect.

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Added to that, some of the nation’s biggest companies are in crisis, with two retailing stalwarts appointing administrators in the past week and Tata Steel’s move to sell its U.K. Business raising questions about the future of British industry.

Economy would have probably been moderating regardless of any Brexit uncertainty,” said Simon Wells, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. “If, or when, the near-term uncertainty lifts we’ll be right back to the same old puzzles.” Turbulent opening While the first-quarter data reflect a turbulence that roiled global markets at the start of the year — and which has since abated — four years of solid consumer spending hasn’t been enough to protect even some firms that feed on domestic demand. Department-store operator BHS Group Ltd. And formalwear retailer Austin Reed succumbed to years of intense competition in the past week, while high-street fashion chain Next has warned the outlook is worsening.

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Britain’s reliance on one part of the economy is likely to fuel concern that the pace of growth isn’t sustainable. The slowdown in services was driven by business and finance, which grew 0.3 percent in the first quarter — less than half of the pace of the previous three months. Industrial production shrank for a second straight quarter and construction slumped. There may also be a risk of consumer fatigue.

With the savings rate at a record low, households may at some point start to think about their own reserves and curtail spending. The Confederation of British Industry’s retail sales fell to its lowest level in more than four years this month. “It appears that the economy has hit a speed bump.” said Azad Zangana, an economist at Schroders in London. “Growth is likely to remain sluggish until the result of the referendum is known. Votes to remain in the EU then growth is likely to accelerate significantly in the second half of the year. If, however, the U.K.